第一，正视当前世界经济面临的增长困境。疫情以来的这几年，世界经济复苏艰难。据国际货币基金组织等机构预测，今后几年世界经济可能维持中低速增长，总体低于疫情前水平。世界经济增长动能不足，既有疫情冲击、通胀高企、债务加剧等阶段性因素影响，也与一些深层次矛盾和问题密切相关。从长周期看，自18世纪60年代以来，以蒸汽机、电力、信息技术为代表的三次工业革命，极大改变了人类生产生活方式，每次工业革命后世界经济都迎来一轮爆发增长期。同时，随着既有技术模式释放动能的减弱，世界经济增长也会逐渐步入一个瓶颈期。这种内在变化带来的影响是多方面的，在宏观上，表现为经济增速放缓，世界经济的蛋糕不再那么容易做大；在中观上，体现为投资收益下降，规模经济效应减弱，越来越多的商业领域由“蓝海”变成了“红海”；在微观上，则是不同主体间竞争加剧、“内卷”增多。基于存量的你争我夺，也一定程度导致了逆全球化抬头、地缘冲突加剧等问题。

First, we need to confront the growth predicament of the world economy. The road to recovery has been treacherous since the onset of COVID-19. According to forecasts of the International Monetary Fund and other institutions, global growth may remain moderate or even slow in the coming years, and generally below the pre-pandemic level. Anemic global growth is not only caused by temporary factors such as impact of the pandemic, high inflation and rising debt. It is also ascribed to some deep-seated problems and intrinsic issues. From a cyclical perspective, the three industrial revolutions since the 1760s, which were respectively marked by the utilization of steam engines, electricity and information technologies, all transformed the way of production and life in human society. Each was followed by a surge in global growth. However, when the impetus unleashed by existing technological models diminished, global growth would slide into a period of stagnation. The impact of such fundamental transformation is manifold. At the macro level, we would see a slowdown of economic growth, and find it more difficult to make the pie of global economy bigger. At the meso level, we would see declining return on investment and diminishing economies of scale, with more business sectors turning from blue to red oceans. At the micro level, we would see intensifying competition among market players and spiraling “involution.” The neck-to-neck contest for available resources is, to some extent, triggering problems including backlash against globalization and escalation of geopolitical conflicts.

从国际看，世界百年变局加速演进，外部环境更趋复杂严峻，可能对我国贸易、科技等领域造成更大冲击。世界经济增长动能不足，单边主义、保护主义加剧，多边贸易体制受阻，关税壁垒增多，冲击全球产业链供应链稳定，对国际经济循环造成阻碍。地缘政治紧张因素依然较多，影响全球市场预期和投资信心，加剧国际市场波动风险。

Internationally, changes unseen in a century are unfolding across the world at a faster pace. An increasingly complex and severe external environment may exert a greater impact on China in areas such as trade, science, and technology. Global economic growth lacks steam, unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise, the multilateral trading system is experiencing disruptions, and tariff barriers continue to increase. All this is undermining the stability of global industrial and supply chains and impeding flows in the international economy. The factors causing geopolitical tensions remain numerous, and they are affecting global market expectations and investment confidence and fueling the risk of volatility in global markets.

世界经济增长动能不足，地区热点问题频发，外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升。

Global economic growth lacks steam, and regional hotspot issues keep erupting. China’s external environment has become more complex, severe, and uncertain.

世界进入新的动荡变革期，世界经济增长动能不足，不稳定、不确定、难预料因素增多。亚太合作下一个30年将走向何方，成为我们面临的新的时代之问。“万物得其本者生，百事得其道者成。”我们要秉持亚太经合组织初心，牢记历史赋予我们的使命，推动亚太合作再出发。

The world has entered a new period of turbulence and change. The momentum of world economic growth is sluggish. Destabilizing, uncertain and unpredictable factors are increasing. Where will Asia-Pacific cooperation be headed in the next 30 years? This is a new question of the times facing us. As an ancient Chinese scholar observed, “Plants with strong roots grow well, and efforts with the right focus ensure success.” We should stay committed to APEC’s founding mission, never forget our mission bestowed by history, and move to relaunch Asia-Pacific cooperation.